Tame inflation data helped mortgage rates move lower early in the week, but stronger than expected economic data turned them higher later in the week, leaving mortgage rates nearly unchanged from last week. The announcement of larger than expected Treasury auctions next week ($104 billion) also was negative for mortgage rates.

This week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicated that inflation is not a concern in the short-term. A significant decline in energy prices from one year ago resulted in a very low overall annual inflation rate. Even Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose at a tame 1.8% annual rate. However, the benefits from the favorable inflation news was offset by stronger than expected economic growth data. In particular, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed surprising improvement. In addition, May Housing Starts rose 17% from April, while Building Permits, a leading indicator of future activity, also exceeded expectations. This week’s data sets the stage for next week’s Fed meeting. With inflation currently low but at risk of increasing if the economy continues to improve, the Fed may be reluctant to introduce more stimulus, opting instead to wait and see how the economy performs.

President Obama this week proposed broad new rules for regulating the financial system. One proposal under the Obama plan would create a consumer protection agency which would have the authority to set rules for the mortgage industry. The details may not be known for quite a while, as the plan now faces a lengthy debate in Congress.

Also Notable:

• The -1.3% decline in CPI from one year earlier was the largest annual decline since 1950
• Continuing Jobless Claims fell for the first time in twenty weeks
• The Fed’s Bullard predicted that the economy will begin to improve during the third quarter
• The Fed purchased $20 billion in agency MBS during the week ending 6/17

Weekly Mortgage Update Courtesy Of:

Darrin L. Kresevic, Sr. V.P., Loan Officer, LPO Manager

First Place Bank          440 349 7550

6150 Enterprise Parkway – Solon Ohio 44139

Assistant – Janice Zabish Direct – 440 349 7562

Lending seventeen years of Mortgage Banking experience

To reach Darrin and many other outstanding business people in our community,

please look at our website:          business and services section

What a two weeks it has been! We have basically seen 30 year mortgage rates jump 1% in a short two week period. In my world that is a tough two weeks! There are many opinions as to why rates have increased…..

• the recent economic data has shown some small signs of improvement
• concern about inflation due to the substantial amount of debt the U.S government has issued / continues to issue
• and lastly, the big concern which is not heavily publicized….foreign investment or the lack there of.

Did you realize that foreign investors, namely China and Japan purchase up to 40% of our debt (U.S. Treasuries). One of the major fears the past few weeks is that foreign investors stop buying our debt. As of yesterday we are starting to see some stabilization in the interest rate market which is helping rates ease back down. Current 30 year rates are averaging 5.625% and 15 year 5.125%. I am willing to go out on a limb and say we should see an additional .50% improvement in the coming weeks/months.

For my readers who are realtors you may want to check with the lenders on your deals to confirm the rate lock. If closing dates are missed (which I have heard some buzz it is happening more often) it is possible locks will expire AND rates will be adjusted up to current levels. Don’t get me wrong, current levels are still historically outstanding just not the 4.50 – 4.875% that many may have locked into.

Week Ahead

The most significant economic data next week will be the monthly inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Wednesday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, Industrial Production and Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday. The Empire State and Philadelphia Fed regional manufacturing indexes will round out the schedule.

Weekly Mortgage Update Courtesy Of: 

Darrin L. Kresevic, Sr. V.P., Loan Officer, LPO Manager

 First Place Bank          440 349 7550       

6150 Enterprise Parkway – Solon Ohio 44139

Assistant – Janice Zabish Direct – 440 349 7562

 Lending seventeen years of Mortgage Banking experience

To reach Darrin and many other outstanding business people in our community,

please look at our website:          business and services section